Project your savings at retirement and check whether the income it supports matches what you actually want to spend.
A planning estimate, not a promise about future markets.
We grow your current savings and monthly contributions at your expected return to project a balance at retirement. Your target is sized with the 4% rule: multiply your desired annual income by 25, then adjust that target for inflation between now and your retirement year, so the comparison is apples to apples in future dollars rather than today's.
Of the eight inputs above, three do almost all the work: your monthly contribution, your return assumption, and how many years you give the money to compound. Age at which you start contributing matters more than most people expect, since a decade of extra compounding time can outweigh a meaningfully higher contribution started later. Run the numbers with your current plan first, then try adding even a modest amount to the monthly contribution field to see how sensitive your projected surplus or shortfall really is.
| Assumed withdrawal rate | Target = annual income x |
|---|---|
| 3.0% | 33.3 |
| 3.5% | 28.6 |
| 4.0% (used by this calculator) | 25.0 |
The 4% figure traces back to the Trinity study (Trinity University, 1998), which tested historical U.S. market returns against decades of withdrawals. Later research has argued for a more conservative 3% to 3.5% for retirements longer than 30 years. This calculator uses 4% as a fixed assumption; it is not adjustable per input in this version.
Want the payout side worked out month by month instead of as a single target number? The savings withdrawal calculator runs that projection, and the FIRE number calculator applies the same 4% logic to an early-retirement timeline.
We project your savings forward using your current balance, monthly contribution, and expected return, then compare the monthly income that balance could support at a 4% withdrawal rate against your inflation-adjusted target income. A positive surplus means the projection clears your goal; a negative one shows the gap in today's future dollars.
Small return differences compound over long horizons. Two percentage points of annual return, held for 30 years, can change a final balance by well over 50 percent. That is why it is worth running this calculator twice, once with a conservative return and once with your actual target allocation's historical average, rather than trusting a single number.
Lower the retirement age field and the projection shortens your accumulation window and your target's inflation adjustment accordingly. Retiring early usually means a longer payout period too, which this calculator does not size for on its own, so cross-check the result against the FIRE number calculator or the savings withdrawal calculator for the drawdown side.
No, this tool only projects savings you actively contribute and grow yourself. If you expect Social Security or a defined-benefit pension, estimate those separately with the Social Security calculator or pension calculator and treat them as additional income on top of what this page shows.
There is no single right answer, but running the numbers at a return a point or two below your best guess is a common way to build in a margin of safety, since overestimating returns is one of the most common retirement planning mistakes.